The 2GW Liddell coal fired power generator will close in a few years. As yet not nearly enough new supply has been started in NSW to replace it.
Even assuming that enough new wind and solar PV is built between now and then it’s still fair to say that there will be more volatility in the resulting availability of generation. That’s particularly the case if we considered the combined Victorian and NSW market.
There is therefore going to be an emerging need, a market if you will, for dispatchability or reliability. A price signal for this will emerge in the spot market, but it will probably emerge too late, in the nature of these things, for anyone to do anything about it if we wait until then.
We already know that if Snowy 2 goes ahead, as seems likely, it will require more transmission – $2 bn has been mentioned for transmission just for that. Snowy 2 and transmission will both take a long time to get done, years and years. So early action on the transmission side should arguably at the top of the new Energy Security Board’s agenda.
There is way, way more to say about learnings from this year’s excellent Clean Energy Summit conference and we’ll explore a few that have struck this analyst going forward (and in our weekly podcast).